Elon Musk took to Twitter this morning (still officially Sunday night in California) to give the details on the Model 3 launch.

The main takeaways are as follows:

  • The Model 3 has passed all regulatory requirementsa for production a full two weeks ahead fo schedule
  • The first car, SN1, will be completed Friday
  • The first 30 customers will receive their cars on July 28th at a handover party
  • Production will grow exponentially from there: 100 cars in August, 1,500 in September, etc
  • Tesla expects production to be at 20,000 cars in December

This is exciting news, because it means they are doing better than expected. The ramp is slow at first, but 20,000 cars per month is a huge accomplishment, since right now Tesla delivers about 25,000 cars per quarter between the Model S and Model X.

I graphed out the production ramp based on these few numbers.

Estimated Tesla Model 3 production ramp graph

Following the curve on this graph, we can see that October will probably see around 6,000 cars and November should bring us somewhere around 12,500. 

That brings the total cars delivered in 2017 to just over 40,000. This is lower than some expectations, but still should satisfy those that stood in line and are planning on buying the base model.

Estimates for the total number of people that stood in line in the US is somewhere around 27,000-45,000 people (90 stores in the US at the time, times 300-500 people per store on average). Take away about half for those that want AWD or Performance and we have around 14,000-23,000 people.

Now, let's count down 25 days to get all of the official specs and information on the Model 3!


EDIT: updated estimate numbers and graph